Chao Zi
Assistant Professor of Finance
Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
CV/Résumé Research
Assistant Professor of Finance
Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
(with Chenxi Zhang)
Abstract: This paper studies the evolution of momentum effects in China’s A-share market. Momentum strategies that buy past winners and sell past losers yield significant profits in the period before 2005, but they dissipate in the later period. We find that measures of noise trading are markedly higher in the later sample, and there is also significantly more informed trading proxied by major shareholder transactions. These findings are consistent with a model that features overconfident investors being skeptical about private signals. Overall, our analysis points to the changing investor composition as the driver of the disappearing momentum effects.
Abstract: Through machine learning (ML), a comprehensive set of fund characteristics can consistently predict mutual fund performance in China. The difference between high- and low-performing funds is large and persists for over a year. While characteristics of the stocks that funds hold are not predictive, fund activeness and their past performance are important predictors. We also find that the past returns of sibling funds (funds managed by the same manager) and family funds have important predictive power. The interaction effects between these predictors and macroeconomic conditions largely account for ML’s superior prediction relative to linear methods.
Abstract: I assess the overall supply of public sector capital in the U.S. through the lens of asset prices. Using a two-sector general equilibrium model, I demonstrate how the supply of public sector capital may become a source of priced risk, for which the price of risk changes sign as public sector capital becomes over- or under-supplied. Taking two complementary empirical approaches, I find consistent results suggesting that assets with higher sensitivity to variations in public investment have higher average returns. Together my findings imply that public sector capital is undersupplied, and greater public investment is favorable for investors.
(with Felipe Iachan and Dejanir Silva)
Abstract: We study the effects of idiosyncratic uncertainty on asset prices, investment, and welfare. We consider an economy with two main components: under-diversification and endogenous, countercyclical idiosyncratic risk. The equilibrium is subject to underinvestment and excessive aggregate risk-taking. Inefficiencies stem from an idiosyncratic risk externality, as firms do not internalize the effect of their investment decisions on the risk borne by others. Risk externalities depend on an idiosyncratic risk premium and a variance risk premium. We assess their magnitude empirically. The optimal allocation can be implemented through financial regulation using a tax benefit on debt and risk-weighted capital requirements.
(with Adam Clark-Joseph and Mao Ye)
Abstract: Independent technological glitches forced two separate trading halts on different U.S. exchanges during the week of July 6, 2015. During each halt, all other exchanges remained open. We exploit exogenous variation provided by this unprecedented coincidence, in conjunction with a proprietary data set, to identify the causal impact of Designated Market Maker (DMM) participation on liquidity. When the voluntary liquidity providers on one exchange were removed, liquidity remained unchanged; when DMMs were removed, liquidity decreased market-wide. We find evidence consistent with the idea that these DMMs, despite facing only mild formal obligations, significantly improve liquidity in the modern electronic marketplace.
